* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/26/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 58 53 48 38 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 64 58 53 48 38 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 59 54 49 41 34 30 27 23 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 30 19 16 19 17 21 22 26 33 40 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 3 -2 8 8 0 5 6 1 4 1 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 218 237 241 242 203 262 262 250 241 242 233 246 249 SST (C) 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.6 24.8 24.3 24.3 24.2 24.3 24.5 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 128 123 118 109 103 102 101 103 106 104 95 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.5 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 6 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 58 54 49 47 46 41 36 35 30 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 25 25 25 24 22 18 16 14 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 18 27 45 53 52 50 45 28 19 16 11 200 MB DIV 50 39 13 38 55 5 -4 15 0 32 0 2 -13 700-850 TADV 14 11 12 9 8 7 1 1 0 0 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 692 669 630 585 545 476 433 410 387 333 244 148 72 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.2 24.8 25.8 26.8 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.3 115.4 115.6 115.8 116.1 116.2 116.2 116.3 116.3 116.2 116.0 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 3 3 2 4 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -23. -25. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -14. -18. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -23. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -32. -43. -52. -60. -69. -78. -86. -90. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/26/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)