* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/26/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 49 51 52 52 50 48 52 56 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 45 49 51 52 52 50 48 52 56 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 45 47 52 56 56 54 51 49 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 11 14 21 20 27 28 34 38 33 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -3 0 0 3 -1 1 -1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 276 341 281 265 266 258 264 262 247 229 224 242 249 SST (C) 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 104 106 108 110 112 114 115 114 112 107 102 101 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 90 91 93 95 96 97 96 95 92 88 86 85 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 -56.8 -56.3 -56.2 -56.0 -56.2 -55.8 -55.8 -56.3 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 34 36 29 24 23 26 27 32 42 43 46 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 16 17 18 17 18 19 19 18 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 34 39 31 21 10 2 0 -11 0 10 20 19 29 200 MB DIV -6 -25 -45 -43 -27 -20 -10 18 -11 28 39 35 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 -4 -5 -2 1 2 4 6 3 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1644 1629 1613 1619 1625 1684 1757 1833 1930 2045 2146 2082 1974 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 30.7 30.2 29.8 29.3 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.5 30.5 31.9 33.1 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.8 31.1 32.0 32.8 33.5 34.3 35.1 35.8 36.3 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -4. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 12. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/26/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/26/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED