* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/26/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 47 41 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 51 47 41 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 54 50 46 42 35 30 27 24 21 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 28 21 23 24 21 15 19 21 25 28 34 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 4 2 -5 0 11 6 7 3 3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 240 249 225 210 226 253 233 251 256 237 235 237 232 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 125 120 114 106 103 101 97 95 93 94 93 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 52 50 42 40 39 31 29 25 23 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 25 23 21 20 17 14 13 10 8 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 40 54 57 67 63 58 44 23 20 25 11 200 MB DIV 26 38 53 39 26 13 16 -4 -26 18 16 19 15 700-850 TADV 12 7 5 5 9 5 3 0 1 1 1 4 2 LAND (KM) 703 655 607 560 519 489 467 480 512 498 472 438 392 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.5 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 115.5 115.5 115.7 115.9 116.4 116.4 116.7 117.2 117.4 117.4 117.5 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -19. -25. -35. -44. -51. -60. -68. -74. -77. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/26/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)