* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/26/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 44 41 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 44 41 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 48 44 41 34 29 25 22 20 18 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 20 24 21 17 21 16 17 18 22 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 1 -2 0 5 6 0 1 -2 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 244 238 210 238 247 256 246 249 247 221 238 233 242 SST (C) 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 118 114 110 104 100 99 98 98 97 97 97 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 61 56 55 50 51 46 44 42 39 35 32 28 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 23 19 20 19 15 12 10 8 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 15 32 51 49 57 57 52 51 32 30 26 8 7 200 MB DIV 22 55 44 19 22 -9 6 -9 7 2 18 11 13 700-850 TADV 6 7 4 10 6 4 1 0 0 0 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 650 600 553 526 504 486 475 480 499 491 473 437 386 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.7 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.4 23.7 24.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.7 115.8 116.0 116.2 116.5 116.6 116.7 116.9 116.9 117.0 117.0 117.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 3 2 0 1 2 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -12. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -11. -14. -20. -33. -41. -49. -55. -62. -66. -69. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/26/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)