* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 52 53 56 55 54 52 55 55 58 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 52 53 56 55 54 52 55 55 58 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 52 55 58 58 56 53 51 50 50 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 16 16 19 24 27 29 25 25 22 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 4 2 4 -7 1 SHEAR DIR 266 259 259 268 252 257 245 228 214 208 208 230 248 SST (C) 25.5 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.3 25.7 25.0 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 107 110 112 114 115 115 110 104 102 102 100 98 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 91 94 96 98 99 98 94 90 87 87 84 80 82 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.5 -57.0 -57.2 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -56.3 -56.1 -56.2 -56.3 -57.3 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 28 25 24 24 21 27 28 32 36 37 47 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 18 17 17 17 20 19 22 850 MB ENV VOR 32 22 5 2 -6 -2 -4 0 -8 -3 10 10 15 200 MB DIV -42 -49 -28 -31 -18 -12 27 19 40 45 49 17 -18 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 -3 -1 1 3 7 7 4 3 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 1630 1639 1647 1704 1752 1883 2005 2112 2114 1966 1857 1804 1789 LAT (DEG N) 30.4 29.9 29.4 29.1 28.7 29.0 30.0 31.3 32.8 34.3 35.6 36.1 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.6 31.0 31.3 32.0 32.7 34.0 34.9 35.7 36.2 36.5 36.5 36.7 37.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 11. 10. 9. 7. 10. 10. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -33.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/26/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED