* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 41 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 41 37 33 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 42 38 34 27 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 22 23 23 23 21 22 22 20 23 28 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 2 2 2 11 1 2 1 0 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 236 232 236 245 255 253 235 231 234 223 231 230 236 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.1 24.0 23.6 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 114 110 108 103 100 99 99 98 95 92 89 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 55 53 54 50 46 44 38 34 28 24 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 23 21 20 20 18 14 12 9 7 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 51 48 49 59 65 48 41 27 21 11 14 200 MB DIV 35 26 24 22 16 5 26 14 15 19 24 4 10 700-850 TADV 8 9 10 7 8 6 0 1 0 0 3 3 10 LAND (KM) 572 525 482 465 453 458 461 476 499 514 504 484 447 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.2 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.4 115.5 115.7 115.9 116.3 116.5 116.7 116.9 117.1 117.5 117.7 118.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -28. -39. -48. -57. -63. -69. -74. -79. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)