* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 52 52 52 54 57 61 62 64 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 48 52 52 52 54 57 61 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 50 53 54 53 51 49 50 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 19 22 21 21 24 24 24 24 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -2 0 1 3 7 5 2 -4 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 269 275 254 256 256 229 226 214 217 244 237 245 SST (C) 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.0 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 115 116 116 114 109 105 103 103 100 97 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 98 99 99 97 94 91 88 86 83 79 82 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.3 -56.6 -55.9 -55.9 -56.2 -56.4 -56.6 -57.5 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 26 26 25 21 21 26 33 40 42 49 50 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 18 17 16 20 22 24 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 23 8 7 -4 -1 -1 0 -5 -2 3 10 19 24 200 MB DIV -49 -37 -42 -20 -6 16 26 20 44 54 6 -4 -30 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -3 0 2 3 6 10 6 3 0 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1643 1680 1707 1768 1831 1969 2082 2195 2049 1908 1812 1795 1826 LAT (DEG N) 29.7 29.2 28.7 28.7 28.6 29.1 29.9 31.3 33.2 34.7 35.7 35.9 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 31.1 31.7 32.2 32.9 33.6 34.9 35.8 36.4 36.7 36.9 37.1 37.1 37.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 9 9 6 3 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. 17. 20. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 7. 7. 7. 9. 12. 16. 17. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/27/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED