* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/27/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 48 51 52 53 52 53 55 60 61 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 48 51 52 53 52 53 55 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 48 49 52 52 50 49 48 49 52 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 16 19 21 18 20 28 31 29 28 19 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 3 6 2 1 3 -3 -2 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 264 264 255 254 255 239 235 220 219 213 234 241 244 SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 116 116 116 112 107 103 102 102 100 99 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 99 99 99 99 96 92 89 88 85 82 81 82 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.0 -56.7 -56.4 -56.4 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -56.2 -56.2 -56.9 -57.3 -57.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 25 25 20 19 25 25 35 39 41 47 49 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 18 19 19 21 20 20 20 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 -3 0 2 -1 0 0 3 14 23 23 28 200 MB DIV -43 -46 -24 0 -10 40 -2 59 31 51 8 -13 -20 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 2 3 5 10 6 3 0 -1 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1645 1686 1731 1796 1862 1990 2116 2174 2011 1882 1801 1777 1816 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.6 28.7 29.4 30.5 32.0 33.7 35.0 35.6 35.9 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 32.0 32.6 33.3 33.9 35.0 35.9 36.4 36.6 36.9 37.4 37.4 36.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 5 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):205/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 10. 15. 16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/27/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/27/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED