* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 59 60 60 59 57 60 62 62 61 59 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 59 60 60 59 57 60 62 62 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 61 61 60 57 54 53 53 56 60 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 19 10 15 26 27 29 25 15 23 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 5 8 12 4 5 2 1 -3 -6 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 245 254 255 245 238 233 219 218 225 238 249 240 36 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.3 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 116 114 112 106 102 101 100 98 98 100 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 98 98 97 96 92 88 86 84 81 80 82 82 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.8 -56.7 -56.5 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -57.0 -57.3 -57.0 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 19 18 22 23 27 34 40 45 50 45 39 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 18 23 23 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -14 -6 -3 -12 -5 0 9 6 14 6 -1 -34 200 MB DIV -26 -1 -6 27 31 6 68 36 39 0 -15 -42 -25 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 6 5 8 5 5 0 -3 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1734 1787 1840 1898 1957 2071 2158 2033 1919 1857 1863 1838 1793 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.7 28.6 29.1 29.5 30.7 32.2 33.8 35.0 35.6 35.3 35.6 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.1 33.7 34.2 34.6 35.3 35.8 36.1 36.3 36.5 36.8 36.8 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 5 2 0 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/27/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED