* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MIRIAM EP132012 09/28/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 28 22 14 11 15 17 17 15 19 21 21 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 8 2 1 0 -2 3 6 3 6 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 259 266 270 255 227 219 217 230 223 235 236 249 N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.5 24.9 24.2 24.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 110 111 113 114 114 114 115 109 102 102 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 36 33 32 32 30 27 24 23 24 25 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 12 11 10 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 68 63 68 52 27 13 6 15 20 34 37 N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -23 -28 -38 -33 2 14 0 17 7 -18 -6 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 -1 0 3 3 8 6 9 N/A LAND (KM) 537 552 567 573 579 587 595 594 594 626 568 485 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.4 21.2 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.8 22.7 23.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 116.7 116.8 116.7 116.6 116.5 116.4 116.5 116.7 117.5 117.4 116.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 2 1 0 1 3 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -16. -24. -32. -40. -43. -47. -50. -52. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132012 MIRIAM 09/28/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)