* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 66 65 66 67 68 70 70 66 56 47 V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 66 65 66 67 68 70 70 66 56 47 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 66 64 61 59 58 59 63 64 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 17 19 23 23 22 12 12 12 18 28 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 4 5 4 3 2 0 -1 -2 0 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 238 237 219 219 218 210 199 229 250 284 14 24 19 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 108 105 102 103 101 96 98 97 96 95 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 95 93 91 89 89 85 79 80 80 80 79 78 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.4 -56.5 -56.3 -56.2 -56.0 -56.8 -56.7 -57.2 -57.4 -57.6 -57.5 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 22 25 28 32 34 38 46 48 46 43 39 40 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 19 19 20 22 22 22 22 20 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -9 -8 -13 -11 -6 0 -4 -17 -53 -55 -7 200 MB DIV 14 33 1 25 30 40 50 7 -1 -29 -21 -5 11 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 7 6 4 3 0 0 1 4 7 27 LAND (KM) 1931 1992 2053 2101 2167 1977 1779 1724 1761 1786 1759 1777 1817 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.9 30.5 31.4 32.2 34.1 36.1 36.7 36.4 36.4 37.0 37.2 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.6 35.9 36.6 37.1 37.2 37.0 36.6 36.3 35.8 35.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 7 1 2 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 1. -9. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/28/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED