* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/28/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 66 65 66 69 73 77 74 69 62 58 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 66 65 66 69 73 77 74 69 62 58 V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 67 65 64 61 60 60 63 66 66 63 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 20 19 16 19 16 7 14 6 18 26 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 3 4 7 4 0 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 240 220 223 200 203 206 207 258 256 331 13 7 352 SST (C) 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 105 103 102 103 100 97 98 98 97 97 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 91 89 89 87 83 79 80 81 79 80 80 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.7 -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -56.9 -56.7 -56.8 -57.4 -57.5 -57.0 -57.4 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 25 27 32 36 36 43 50 49 44 42 35 46 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 19 18 20 21 22 26 24 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -16 -12 -12 -14 -13 1 0 2 -16 -30 -4 50 200 MB DIV 35 4 27 62 48 45 40 1 -3 -34 -10 17 29 700-850 TADV 4 2 11 7 6 6 1 -1 0 0 0 4 20 LAND (KM) 1988 2060 2112 2174 2073 1888 1760 1721 1750 1769 1758 1798 1857 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.6 31.3 32.3 33.2 35.0 36.1 36.5 36.3 36.3 36.6 36.5 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 34.8 35.3 35.7 36.0 36.3 36.8 37.4 37.5 37.3 37.0 36.8 36.3 35.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 8 4 1 1 2 1 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 21. 23. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 3. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 9. 4. -3. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/28/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/28/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED