* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 63 64 70 68 66 64 59 57 61 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 63 63 64 70 68 66 64 59 57 61 V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 63 62 61 59 60 62 63 61 59 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 18 20 20 14 8 17 13 21 28 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 2 4 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 7 5 SHEAR DIR 214 199 187 189 208 219 297 291 344 15 5 308 277 SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 105 103 103 104 102 99 97 97 97 97 99 98 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 90 89 89 87 82 79 79 79 79 83 84 81 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.4 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -56.9 -57.3 -57.4 -57.6 -57.3 -57.6 -56.8 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 33 37 38 43 46 50 47 42 40 37 47 52 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 17 19 19 18 22 20 19 20 17 16 20 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -18 -9 -13 -2 -1 -6 -26 -28 8 71 135 200 MB DIV 26 51 44 49 52 33 -5 -25 -26 -2 39 62 92 700-850 TADV 14 9 7 6 4 0 -1 0 2 2 20 13 37 LAND (KM) 2116 2151 2035 1934 1834 1750 1720 1720 1730 1736 1732 1811 1976 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.5 33.5 34.5 35.5 36.3 36.6 36.6 36.4 36.4 36.6 37.1 37.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 36.1 36.5 36.8 37.0 37.3 37.4 37.4 37.5 37.4 37.2 35.4 32.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 7 3 0 1 0 1 4 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 4. 2. 1. 1. -2. -3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 5. 3. 1. -1. -6. -8. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/29/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED