* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 70 71 73 71 69 65 60 54 52 56 V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 70 71 73 71 69 65 60 54 52 56 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 67 66 64 64 65 62 60 56 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 19 11 7 13 15 22 19 28 39 33 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 3 1 -2 4 1 0 0 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 190 182 192 184 204 318 294 332 355 1 344 277 241 SST (C) 24.7 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.4 23.5 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 103 101 98 98 99 99 100 101 100 95 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 90 87 85 81 81 81 82 82 84 85 82 79 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.2 -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -57.5 -57.7 -57.4 -57.1 -57.1 -56.1 -55.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 36 38 42 46 48 44 44 43 38 45 50 58 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 19 21 21 22 19 20 20 18 17 18 23 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 -17 0 -6 -8 -8 -23 -32 -22 11 90 188 200 MB DIV 48 47 57 39 22 -8 -15 -31 -5 17 30 54 81 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 1 4 12 28 29 13 LAND (KM) 2000 1894 1789 1723 1658 1664 1709 1742 1782 1816 1877 1898 1906 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.9 35.9 36.4 36.9 36.6 36.2 35.8 35.4 35.5 35.9 37.2 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 36.9 37.2 37.6 38.0 38.3 38.1 38.1 38.0 37.3 35.8 34.0 32.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 6 3 2 2 2 2 5 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -18. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 4( 11) 4( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED