* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 70 71 70 70 68 66 62 55 54 56 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 70 71 70 70 68 66 62 55 54 56 V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 69 67 65 64 65 64 64 63 61 57 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 14 6 8 14 18 9 13 22 39 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 -1 -4 4 0 0 -2 0 -4 3 8 SHEAR DIR 179 187 172 214 314 317 303 342 23 11 343 272 251 SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.6 23.4 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 100 99 98 100 101 101 102 102 102 96 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 90 87 84 82 80 82 83 83 84 86 88 85 80 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.0 -57.2 -56.7 -56.7 -57.5 -57.5 -57.5 -57.0 -56.8 -56.2 -55.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 37 43 48 47 45 41 38 34 36 41 45 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 21 20 22 20 21 20 20 19 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -17 0 -11 -7 -15 -14 -28 -24 -9 19 119 253 200 MB DIV 40 52 27 7 -20 -16 -22 -29 -1 -15 20 63 78 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 0 0 -4 1 2 12 15 10 42 LAND (KM) 1841 1758 1676 1642 1609 1626 1657 1692 1753 1802 1870 1898 1824 LAT (DEG N) 35.2 35.9 36.6 36.8 36.9 36.4 35.9 35.5 35.0 35.1 35.6 37.4 40.1 LONG(DEG W) 37.3 37.7 38.1 38.5 38.8 39.2 39.4 39.4 39.1 38.1 36.3 33.8 30.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 3 2 3 3 2 3 6 10 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):341/ 13 CX,CY: -3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 20. 22. 24. 24. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -15. -16. -14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/30/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 4( 12) 4( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED