* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 75 74 71 71 70 64 58 59 60 64 V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 75 74 71 71 70 64 58 59 60 64 V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 72 70 68 67 68 66 64 62 59 57 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 13 6 8 13 15 17 12 19 16 36 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -2 -5 -1 1 2 -4 1 4 0 5 9 SHEAR DIR 173 163 218 333 335 308 304 340 7 350 321 264 239 SST (C) 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.6 24.1 22.3 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 102 100 99 98 99 102 102 101 102 100 100 93 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 83 81 81 82 85 85 84 85 84 87 86 80 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.4 -57.0 -57.1 -57.6 -58.0 -57.5 -56.8 -56.7 -56.2 -55.7 -54.8 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 42 48 48 47 42 41 40 39 45 46 47 56 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 21 22 23 21 19 20 20 18 15 20 23 28 850 MB ENV VOR -13 0 -9 -2 -12 -17 -25 -31 -22 4 76 188 180 200 MB DIV 59 29 5 -17 -14 -17 -24 -9 18 14 48 68 55 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 14 7 28 56 LAND (KM) 1740 1683 1627 1617 1607 1649 1762 1822 1844 1861 1898 1876 1260 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.6 36.9 36.8 36.7 36.0 34.9 34.8 35.1 35.7 36.3 38.9 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.1 38.5 38.8 39.1 39.4 39.1 38.2 37.4 36.3 35.0 30.9 24.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 6 13 26 31 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 24. 25. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 1. -2. -5. 0. 2. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -11. -17. -16. -15. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/30/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED