* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/30/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 77 75 72 73 66 57 52 49 52 54 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 77 75 72 73 66 57 52 49 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 76 73 72 70 69 68 65 60 55 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 7 4 12 13 16 10 20 22 39 39 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -5 4 2 -3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 171 198 309 314 316 288 290 23 354 318 261 242 236 SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.4 23.3 22.0 19.7 16.8 POT. INT. (KT) 101 99 98 100 100 101 102 103 100 95 89 82 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 85 82 81 83 83 84 84 86 86 84 80 75 71 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.0 -57.4 -57.7 -58.2 -57.6 -57.3 -56.8 -56.6 -55.8 -55.6 -55.2 -57.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 41 37 41 38 39 45 56 64 69 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 23 21 20 20 22 18 16 16 15 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -3 2 -16 -15 -18 -31 -42 -18 31 142 231 133 200 MB DIV 20 5 -20 -19 -10 -34 -2 -17 -3 39 68 92 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 22 25 25 49 67 LAND (KM) 1639 1602 1566 1590 1614 1692 1773 1829 1892 1919 1848 1601 1292 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.1 37.2 36.8 36.4 35.7 35.1 35.2 35.8 37.4 39.9 43.7 48.2 LONG(DEG W) 38.3 38.7 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.1 38.6 37.5 35.7 33.5 30.9 28.9 27.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 4 3 4 3 6 10 14 18 22 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -21. -26. -32. -36. -39. -42. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -14. -23. -28. -31. -28. -26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/30/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/30/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 5( 17) 4( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED