* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 09/30/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 75 72 68 62 54 45 39 44 44 41 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 75 72 68 62 54 45 39 44 44 41 V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 76 74 72 69 66 63 59 55 52 50 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 2 9 16 16 20 17 29 25 41 46 49 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 2 -1 -2 -1 5 1 0 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 181 341 300 321 319 318 360 358 341 274 234 222 231 SST (C) 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.6 23.7 22.4 20.3 18.1 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 99 98 99 101 101 101 101 101 97 91 83 77 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 81 84 83 84 85 86 84 81 75 71 68 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.6 -57.9 -57.7 -57.4 -56.9 -57.2 -56.6 -55.1 -55.8 -57.0 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 44 42 41 38 38 35 36 46 48 68 72 70 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 22 20 20 21 19 15 13 12 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -4 -15 -18 -16 -30 -51 -30 20 128 203 198 100 200 MB DIV -2 -22 -30 -14 -22 -25 0 -2 34 51 94 103 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 16 24 54 30 61 -14 LAND (KM) 1564 1560 1556 1597 1640 1701 1798 1852 1913 1929 1608 1443 1296 LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.2 37.1 36.6 36.1 35.8 35.5 35.9 36.9 39.2 42.5 46.1 49.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.0 39.2 39.4 39.4 39.4 38.8 37.6 36.2 34.1 31.7 28.8 27.9 28.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 8 12 17 18 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 875 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -4. -7. -11. -15. -21. -26. -32. -36. -40. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -26. -35. -41. -36. -36. -39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 09/30/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 09/30/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 4( 16) 3( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED