* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/01/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 67 65 60 54 44 35 36 41 38 33 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 67 65 60 54 44 35 36 41 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 70 68 67 65 63 59 54 50 48 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 19 17 20 21 24 33 36 44 35 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 2 -1 0 0 3 6 0 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 9 296 303 302 287 337 3 9 307 242 241 241 253 SST (C) 24.7 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.0 22.7 21.0 18.7 16.9 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 99 100 100 102 101 102 102 99 92 86 78 72 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 83 83 85 84 85 87 86 83 78 72 67 64 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.9 -58.0 -57.7 -57.4 -57.2 -57.1 -57.2 -55.7 -54.9 -55.4 -57.0 -57.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 4 3 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 41 40 37 38 35 33 36 48 51 71 61 41 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 18 20 20 20 18 14 12 15 18 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -17 -19 -23 -22 -43 -58 -20 29 208 217 91 17 200 MB DIV -17 -33 -20 -32 -41 -15 -7 18 43 62 92 56 63 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 9 32 27 48 84 40 29 LAND (KM) 1572 1595 1617 1670 1724 1791 1898 1976 1955 1666 1452 1225 1165 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 36.6 36.3 35.9 35.4 35.3 35.1 35.8 37.8 41.0 45.2 48.2 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 39.4 39.5 39.5 39.3 39.0 38.0 36.5 34.4 31.6 29.1 27.1 26.4 26.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 4 5 7 12 17 20 19 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 843 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -27. -31. -34. -37. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -9. -6. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -15. -21. -31. -40. -39. -34. -37. -42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/01/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/01/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 2( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED