* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/01/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 58 55 52 48 42 35 26 32 40 35 29 V (KT) LAND 65 60 58 55 52 48 42 35 26 32 40 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 58 57 57 55 51 46 43 42 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 19 20 23 23 20 32 35 44 44 42 47 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 0 -1 1 1 5 0 -5 -2 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 282 301 301 287 313 325 358 333 292 240 236 240 237 SST (C) 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.3 23.3 21.8 20.2 18.1 16.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 100 100 101 102 102 103 100 95 88 83 76 71 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 82 84 85 85 86 86 84 80 76 70 66 64 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -57.8 -57.4 -57.2 -57.1 -56.8 -57.2 -56.2 -55.4 -56.3 -57.1 -57.7 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 37 36 35 45 53 64 63 46 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 21 21 18 17 16 14 10 16 21 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 -21 -23 -39 -58 -34 -1 41 155 97 5 -27 200 MB DIV -39 -24 -36 -35 -48 -13 5 33 41 65 73 37 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 1 7 19 41 14 18 50 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 1620 1647 1675 1731 1787 1876 1940 2017 1744 1465 1284 1163 1238 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 36.2 35.9 35.6 35.2 35.0 35.6 36.8 39.1 42.3 46.4 49.1 50.4 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 39.2 39.1 38.7 38.2 37.0 35.2 32.7 29.4 27.0 25.7 26.1 27.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 6 10 15 18 20 17 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 19. 22. 25. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -12. -7. -2. -7. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -23. -30. -39. -33. -25. -30. -36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/01/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/01/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED