* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/01/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 49 47 42 38 29 27 36 33 25 21 V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 49 47 42 38 29 27 36 33 25 21 V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 53 51 51 49 47 44 42 41 42 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 22 23 19 24 30 37 42 47 51 59 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 4 1 5 3 -6 -3 -4 -10 -15 SHEAR DIR 296 288 284 307 320 344 350 317 258 237 245 240 220 SST (C) 23.8 23.8 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.5 22.6 21.5 20.5 18.9 16.7 15.5 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 94 94 94 94 94 94 90 87 84 79 73 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 79 80 80 80 81 80 78 76 73 68 63 63 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.4 -57.3 -57.1 -57.0 -56.9 -56.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.0 -57.5 -58.9 -58.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 40 36 36 35 38 49 60 61 55 34 40 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 21 20 18 18 16 16 12 11 19 14 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -23 -21 -36 -45 -48 -23 17 104 163 54 -20 32 200 MB DIV -24 -33 -27 -38 -27 -28 15 37 61 83 38 43 64 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 4 7 10 28 29 12 53 50 22 31 LAND (KM) 1654 1702 1750 1792 1834 1925 2040 1954 1658 1447 1234 1199 1320 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 35.7 35.3 35.2 35.0 35.0 35.4 37.1 40.2 43.9 47.9 49.9 50.0 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 39.0 38.7 38.2 37.7 36.2 33.9 31.4 28.7 27.0 26.3 27.1 28.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 8 11 16 19 19 15 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 22. 25. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 0. -3. -3. -8. -9. -1. -6. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -13. -18. -22. -31. -33. -24. -27. -35. -39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/01/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/01/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED