* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/01/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 46 44 38 31 27 31 40 39 37 29 V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 46 44 38 31 27 31 40 39 37 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 49 49 47 45 42 41 42 42 41 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 22 16 18 31 28 33 45 38 49 51 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 4 1 3 5 1 0 -1 -2 -2 -12 SHEAR DIR 292 285 312 329 342 354 344 281 236 238 247 244 213 SST (C) 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.8 23.3 22.2 21.2 19.9 18.2 16.5 16.0 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 94 95 95 95 95 93 89 86 82 76 70 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 80 80 81 81 81 79 78 75 70 65 61 63 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.3 -57.1 -56.9 -56.8 -57.1 -56.7 -55.9 -55.9 -56.3 -57.4 -59.2 -56.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 35 36 35 33 40 50 67 66 46 32 32 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 20 20 17 13 12 16 23 22 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -24 -37 -46 -53 -34 -10 59 188 169 28 -89 -13 200 MB DIV -43 -35 -36 -25 -14 5 38 46 89 26 23 -6 52 700-850 TADV -1 -1 4 4 8 27 27 43 42 95 12 -2 37 LAND (KM) 1683 1735 1787 1831 1875 1963 2069 1843 1589 1464 1292 1281 1359 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.3 35.0 34.9 34.8 35.0 35.9 38.2 41.8 45.3 48.2 49.2 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 39.4 39.0 38.5 37.9 37.3 35.6 32.9 30.4 28.4 27.4 27.4 27.9 28.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 9 13 17 19 16 10 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 23. 25. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -9. -10. -7. 0. -2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -17. -24. -28. -24. -15. -16. -18. -26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/01/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/01/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED