* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/02/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 41 36 32 33 41 42 40 38 35 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 41 36 32 33 41 42 40 38 35 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 44 44 43 42 41 42 44 46 46 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 15 18 25 23 27 34 37 34 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 3 0 0 6 6 5 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 327 322 327 334 354 304 245 229 238 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.0 21.7 20.7 19.0 17.6 17.0 16.2 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 95 95 96 96 95 92 88 85 79 72 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 81 82 82 82 81 80 78 72 66 64 63 62 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.7 -56.8 -56.9 -57.0 -56.8 -56.1 -56.8 -57.4 -57.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 37 36 35 35 45 60 63 60 40 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 19 18 18 14 13 14 19 17 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -37 -44 -56 -54 -21 22 106 132 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -34 -23 -22 -22 -14 28 26 69 55 39 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 6 10 25 54 26 45 40 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1771 1821 1872 1922 1974 2073 1996 1687 1423 1322 1347 1275 1168 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 34.6 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.5 36.5 39.8 43.8 46.4 47.4 48.7 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 39.1 38.6 38.1 37.3 36.5 34.5 31.7 28.9 26.7 26.3 27.6 27.5 26.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 11 18 20 17 9 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -6. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -14. -18. -17. -9. -8. -10. -12. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/02/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/02/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED