* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/02/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 50 49 42 41 42 46 42 37 42 37 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 50 49 42 41 42 46 42 37 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 54 53 51 48 45 44 46 47 48 47 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 16 22 28 23 18 34 28 43 60 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 1 5 5 7 0 -1 -7 -12 5 4 SHEAR DIR 311 301 308 332 351 320 278 234 242 255 243 216 198 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 23.9 23.6 23.2 22.3 21.1 19.8 18.0 16.8 16.7 16.4 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 96 95 93 90 86 82 75 69 68 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 82 82 81 81 79 75 69 64 62 61 61 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.5 -56.7 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 -56.2 -57.1 -58.3 -58.7 -58.8 -56.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 35 32 35 40 53 68 63 48 32 47 57 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 13 14 15 17 12 10 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -41 -48 -48 -34 -2 39 115 64 -29 16 120 182 200 MB DIV -16 -27 -14 -7 15 37 56 61 62 31 83 90 92 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 10 24 33 26 45 34 11 37 24 32 LAND (KM) 1831 1890 1950 1988 2029 2028 1774 1489 1317 1221 1327 1325 1257 LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.3 34.0 34.3 34.5 35.5 38.2 41.9 45.9 47.9 47.9 48.5 48.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.5 37.9 37.2 36.2 35.2 32.6 29.6 27.2 25.7 26.1 27.7 28.1 27.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 10 15 19 20 15 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 23. 27. 28. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -4. -4. -3. -8. -10. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -13. -14. -13. -9. -13. -18. -13. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/02/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/02/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED