* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/02/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 52 51 48 44 45 51 53 48 43 37 34 V (KT) LAND 55 54 52 51 48 44 45 51 53 48 43 37 34 V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 53 52 51 48 46 47 49 50 51 51 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 25 21 20 26 33 28 36 35 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 4 8 9 1 -6 -5 -5 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 306 318 342 353 355 315 236 228 240 260 239 231 245 SST (C) 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.2 22.7 21.5 20.3 18.9 17.4 16.4 16.0 15.4 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 96 95 95 93 91 87 83 78 73 71 70 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 82 82 82 81 79 76 71 67 66 65 62 59 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -57.2 -56.4 -56.8 -57.5 -58.1 -58.3 -58.1 -56.1 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 36 33 34 40 48 60 69 65 44 39 46 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 18 18 15 14 14 18 18 13 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -51 -44 -32 -6 26 121 138 78 -6 50 109 111 200 MB DIV -25 -1 0 22 35 40 50 67 77 35 43 56 17 700-850 TADV 4 7 8 17 22 24 17 43 39 28 21 -19 -30 LAND (KM) 1883 1923 1963 2008 2057 1956 1658 1463 1316 1336 1533 1399 1400 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 34.4 34.4 34.8 35.1 37.0 40.7 44.0 46.7 48.4 49.4 50.4 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 37.2 36.4 35.2 34.0 31.4 28.9 27.2 26.5 28.2 32.0 33.8 33.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 10 12 17 19 16 11 11 10 5 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 28. 28. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. -6. -9. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -10. -4. -2. -7. -12. -18. -21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/02/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/02/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED