* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/03/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 40 38 40 45 44 41 44 49 45 39 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 40 38 40 45 44 41 44 49 45 39 V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 45 43 41 39 40 43 46 47 48 50 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 33 27 28 25 21 26 35 46 39 32 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 7 5 10 0 -1 -8 -5 -1 -5 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 343 353 348 324 318 231 218 235 246 252 253 253 250 SST (C) 23.6 23.1 22.7 22.1 21.5 20.2 18.6 17.2 16.6 15.9 15.5 15.8 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 95 92 91 89 88 84 77 71 69 67 67 69 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 81 80 80 77 71 66 64 62 62 65 66 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.3 -57.5 -57.2 -56.5 -57.1 -58.4 -59.0 -59.0 -58.4 -56.8 -55.4 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 34 40 47 53 62 64 53 39 39 39 52 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 13 13 14 17 14 11 14 21 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -36 -17 -10 9 72 84 56 18 34 93 152 159 200 MB DIV 0 32 35 22 41 30 44 51 21 57 55 78 33 700-850 TADV 13 16 30 41 25 1 27 25 29 14 11 -9 -29 LAND (KM) 1982 2032 2086 2032 1924 1574 1367 1266 1317 1284 1179 1054 825 LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.7 34.9 35.9 36.9 40.8 44.7 47.1 48.1 49.3 49.9 49.6 49.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.1 35.0 33.8 32.4 31.0 27.9 26.0 26.1 27.7 28.0 26.8 24.8 21.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 15 19 22 16 9 6 5 5 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 19. 24. 29. 31. 31. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 0. -4. -7. -4. 2. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -12. -10. -5. -6. -9. -6. 0. -5. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/03/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/03/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED