* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/03/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 34 34 35 42 43 40 36 36 35 30 V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 34 34 35 42 43 40 36 36 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 37 35 35 37 40 42 44 45 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 25 25 24 16 23 34 47 34 31 33 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 9 10 6 0 -3 -5 0 -1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 352 338 322 317 274 219 236 241 252 255 251 244 255 SST (C) 23.2 22.7 22.1 21.5 21.1 19.5 17.9 16.9 16.7 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 93 91 89 87 86 81 74 70 69 67 67 69 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 81 80 79 79 74 68 65 64 61 62 64 66 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.6 -57.0 -56.1 -56.8 -57.1 -58.0 -57.9 -57.3 -56.6 -56.2 -55.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 49 52 62 64 59 51 44 44 42 41 43 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 16 13 15 14 18 18 15 11 12 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -17 -7 15 39 111 92 76 45 11 22 61 65 200 MB DIV 31 27 17 42 56 43 68 45 31 18 28 -2 -7 700-850 TADV 17 32 38 23 14 15 45 16 16 1 5 -5 -40 LAND (KM) 2014 2056 2035 1921 1768 1484 1348 1308 1423 1452 1398 1304 1097 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.2 35.8 37.2 38.6 42.6 45.9 47.5 48.0 48.7 49.0 48.8 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 35.3 33.9 32.5 31.1 29.6 27.3 26.2 27.1 29.2 30.1 29.5 28.0 24.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 15 18 20 20 12 7 6 3 3 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 27. 29. 28. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -2. -3. -6. -10. -9. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -11. -10. -3. -2. -5. -9. -9. -10. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/03/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/03/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED