* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/03/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 34 34 41 45 43 42 41 40 33 28 V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 34 34 41 45 43 42 41 40 33 28 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 33 33 33 36 39 42 45 47 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 23 16 18 25 40 47 34 31 27 22 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 8 4 1 3 -5 -5 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 345 328 322 270 234 218 239 243 240 247 237 254 275 SST (C) 22.8 22.1 21.5 21.1 20.4 18.6 16.6 16.2 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 87 87 84 78 71 70 73 72 72 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 81 79 79 77 73 66 65 67 65 65 62 65 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.2 -56.7 -56.7 -56.9 -57.5 -59.0 -58.1 -55.2 -54.1 -54.0 -55.3 -57.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 51 59 62 61 61 44 47 50 51 42 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 14 13 13 18 18 14 13 13 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -11 10 33 72 90 26 51 118 122 56 -35 -121 200 MB DIV 32 17 40 56 27 55 48 52 25 16 -33 -47 -51 700-850 TADV 17 30 20 19 6 42 35 11 20 14 1 -12 -26 LAND (KM) 2073 2043 1921 1766 1607 1399 1185 1289 1608 1480 1401 1375 1430 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 36.0 37.0 38.8 40.5 44.7 48.2 48.7 46.9 46.2 45.8 45.2 45.6 LONG(DEG W) 34.0 32.5 31.0 29.6 28.2 26.4 25.8 27.7 31.1 33.4 34.6 35.2 34.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 18 21 21 20 10 9 12 7 4 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 21. 25. 26. 27. 26. 27. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -6. 1. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -7. -12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/03/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/03/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED