* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 39 42 48 48 44 43 42 41 36 33 V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 39 42 48 48 44 43 42 41 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 36 36 37 39 40 41 43 46 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 24 21 22 32 29 59 58 29 19 25 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 0 -3 0 -10 -6 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 328 322 287 242 223 236 244 234 222 249 243 245 240 SST (C) 22.3 21.6 21.1 20.5 19.6 18.1 17.0 16.7 16.9 16.9 16.8 17.0 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 90 88 87 85 81 75 70 68 68 66 68 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 81 80 80 79 75 68 64 62 62 60 62 65 66 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.6 -56.8 -57.4 -57.5 -58.3 -58.5 -57.8 -55.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.5 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 56 62 60 60 51 38 47 51 58 52 44 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 14 15 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 17 31 76 104 100 54 61 154 182 152 106 33 200 MB DIV 10 43 54 34 29 65 65 87 64 26 -5 -22 -18 700-850 TADV 25 16 29 13 22 36 28 59 30 -8 -18 -16 -28 LAND (KM) 2015 1922 1757 1589 1414 1324 1255 1294 1376 1403 1351 1262 1076 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.8 38.2 40.3 42.4 45.7 47.4 47.9 47.6 47.6 47.7 47.5 47.7 LONG(DEG W) 32.5 31.0 29.4 27.9 26.4 25.6 26.2 27.2 28.2 28.6 27.9 26.4 23.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 21 24 20 12 6 3 3 1 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 5. -2. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 27. 27. 25. 25. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. 0. 2. 8. 8. 4. 3. 2. 1. -4. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/03/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED