* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152012 10/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 34 33 31 33 33 33 32 32 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 34 33 31 33 33 33 32 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 34 36 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 20 22 20 16 15 21 19 22 28 40 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 0 10 13 9 2 2 7 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 243 265 276 278 289 299 301 288 280 266 249 229 N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.1 25.0 23.8 23.4 22.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 136 135 137 133 129 117 107 98 95 93 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 124 123 126 126 120 106 96 88 85 82 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 8 8 7 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 59 59 54 59 51 44 40 37 33 36 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -1 -7 -17 -38 -13 11 20 28 4 19 63 N/A 200 MB DIV 20 28 13 4 17 53 79 16 3 12 5 26 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 4 5 10 32 71 44 2 -11 -14 -27 N/A LAND (KM) 1877 1940 2006 2079 2151 2351 2029 1827 1669 1550 1474 1433 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.3 23.2 25.4 27.4 29.5 31.5 33.6 35.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.8 42.0 42.1 42.0 41.8 39.8 36.5 34.0 31.5 29.1 27.0 25.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 7 10 16 17 15 15 14 14 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 35 35 40 41 32 10 2 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152012 FIFTEEN 10/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152012 FIFTEEN 10/03/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED