* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 41 44 47 49 47 51 50 46 44 38 33 V (KT) LAND 40 39 41 44 47 49 47 51 50 46 44 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 38 38 39 40 41 41 40 41 44 46 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 15 15 29 24 34 54 66 51 33 38 38 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 2 0 -5 -9 -2 -3 -7 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 320 288 235 231 224 240 255 243 229 235 247 244 N/A SST (C) 21.7 21.0 20.2 19.3 18.3 17.0 16.3 15.7 15.4 15.9 16.0 15.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 89 88 85 82 77 71 68 68 68 70 71 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 81 82 79 76 71 65 63 63 63 65 67 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.0 -57.5 -57.9 -58.7 -59.5 -59.0 -57.9 -56.6 -55.7 -54.4 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 64 57 61 50 46 45 51 51 62 65 64 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 13 15 17 12 8 13 16 13 13 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 28 62 84 67 39 31 50 79 148 145 138 N/A 200 MB DIV 40 47 37 26 28 52 50 61 100 89 69 38 N/A 700-850 TADV 18 24 -1 17 23 12 47 -1 51 12 3 26 N/A LAND (KM) 1935 1723 1513 1367 1272 1096 1056 979 811 672 439 310 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 38.7 40.9 43.2 45.5 47.8 48.8 49.8 50.5 50.1 49.8 48.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.0 29.1 27.2 26.0 24.7 24.1 24.3 23.8 21.7 19.4 15.4 11.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 27 25 25 18 8 5 6 7 10 14 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 17 CX,CY: 11/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 0. -8. -12. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 29. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -5. 0. 2. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 7. 11. 10. 6. 4. -2. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/04/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED