* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL152012 10/04/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 40 41 38 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 40 39 38 40 41 38 35 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 39 39 39 39 40 41 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 18 18 21 17 15 20 33 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 2 8 7 4 1 3 8 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 271 274 284 293 319 277 283 280 272 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.4 25.5 24.4 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 136 137 136 132 127 118 110 101 94 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 124 126 126 121 115 106 97 89 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 54 55 56 41 34 31 28 26 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 15 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -14 -29 -20 24 35 37 11 20 42 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 25 16 38 72 69 18 4 -5 -16 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 7 18 27 51 15 0 -8 -16 -27 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1918 1973 2030 2142 2254 2250 2088 1963 1866 1826 1797 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.3 21.1 21.9 23.7 25.3 27.1 28.8 30.7 32.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.1 42.2 42.3 41.7 41.0 38.8 37.1 35.5 33.9 32.7 31.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 34 40 40 41 20 18 10 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 5. 6. 3. 0. 0. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED