* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 49 52 54 55 58 60 56 51 41 37 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 49 52 54 55 58 60 56 51 41 37 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 42 42 42 42 42 46 50 53 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 28 31 28 47 56 49 35 31 35 49 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -2 0 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 -5 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 301 248 229 237 234 244 244 233 232 232 241 254 N/A SST (C) 21.2 20.6 19.7 19.0 18.1 17.0 15.6 14.8 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 86 82 79 75 72 69 67 68 70 72 73 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 80 75 72 69 66 64 63 64 66 68 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.6 -57.8 -58.4 -58.6 -58.9 -56.4 -56.7 -54.9 -54.1 -54.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 59 60 55 51 47 40 52 55 62 62 60 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 18 18 13 11 17 20 17 15 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 53 95 110 104 57 13 63 106 190 148 66 N/A 200 MB DIV 40 42 49 66 58 60 76 90 78 77 30 21 N/A 700-850 TADV 21 16 23 24 37 26 24 11 -30 -78 -34 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 1742 1594 1426 1383 1350 1249 1183 1101 912 689 377 256 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 39.9 42.2 43.9 45.6 47.5 49.6 50.9 51.7 51.2 50.4 49.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.1 27.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 26.2 26.7 26.1 23.6 20.2 15.0 9.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 25 21 17 13 10 8 7 9 14 18 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 18 CX,CY: 13/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 744 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 6. -2. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. 29. 27. 28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. -2. 3. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 20. 16. 11. 1. -3. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/04/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED