* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL152012 10/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 38 36 37 39 38 34 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 38 36 37 39 38 34 31 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 37 38 38 38 37 37 38 39 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 19 19 20 22 16 14 16 26 37 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 4 9 11 3 1 6 8 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 279 286 305 308 294 278 264 275 259 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8 25.9 24.9 23.7 22.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 136 134 130 123 113 105 96 91 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 125 126 123 119 110 101 93 85 81 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 54 58 48 34 31 29 32 33 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -15 -29 -23 -9 38 48 16 10 30 58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -11 25 51 68 51 8 -1 0 -19 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 20 30 34 63 -4 -2 -11 -9 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1961 2036 2112 2240 2369 2192 2024 1915 1832 1792 1747 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.3 21.0 21.9 22.7 24.5 26.3 28.1 29.9 31.9 33.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.4 42.2 42.0 41.2 40.3 38.2 36.3 34.7 33.0 31.7 30.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 12 12 13 12 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 39 42 41 37 20 9 2 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 4. 3. -1. -4. -4. -4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED