* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL142012 10/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 46 50 52 54 53 55 51 47 43 35 29 V (KT) LAND 40 42 46 50 52 54 53 55 51 47 43 35 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 42 42 41 40 41 45 49 52 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 32 37 42 46 61 56 32 27 26 23 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -5 -2 -6 -10 -9 -1 -2 -3 -3 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 270 246 249 243 242 241 237 232 249 255 248 258 N/A SST (C) 21.0 20.2 19.4 18.9 18.3 17.3 16.4 15.9 15.4 15.6 16.1 16.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 83 79 77 74 72 69 67 67 69 72 74 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 76 72 70 68 66 64 62 63 65 67 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.5 -57.9 -58.4 -58.2 -58.1 -56.9 -56.2 -55.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 60 55 49 47 49 56 55 55 57 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 16 18 19 17 12 11 16 15 15 13 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 79 115 132 117 67 76 85 99 102 112 69 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 56 75 63 89 52 57 61 30 3 -5 12 N/A 700-850 TADV 23 41 34 38 38 21 4 8 -3 -7 3 -4 N/A LAND (KM) 1555 1462 1373 1350 1341 1291 1332 1310 1213 1056 819 572 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.0 41.0 43.0 44.2 45.4 46.9 48.5 49.5 50.1 49.9 49.2 48.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.8 25.6 26.3 28.2 28.5 27.4 25.0 21.0 16.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 16 12 10 9 7 4 6 11 15 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 3. -6. -12. -15. -17. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 26. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 12. 14. 13. 15. 11. 7. 3. -5. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142012 NADINE 10/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142012 NADINE 10/04/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED