* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL152012 10/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 40 39 39 39 38 34 32 31 30 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 40 39 39 39 38 34 32 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 42 42 40 38 37 36 36 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 20 23 20 18 15 18 24 36 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 5 9 14 11 5 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 281 305 311 318 285 282 265 269 239 225 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.9 25.8 24.5 23.7 23.6 23.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 136 134 126 114 103 98 97 93 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 126 128 127 118 104 93 87 86 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 56 56 46 38 41 40 37 41 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -38 -33 -21 15 15 24 -17 -45 -25 26 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 35 56 61 63 39 15 14 3 16 15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 17 25 35 53 39 14 11 -4 -14 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2039 2133 2227 2350 2219 1898 1688 1530 1400 1334 1204 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.6 22.6 23.5 25.9 28.0 30.1 32.2 34.4 36.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.0 41.5 41.0 39.8 38.5 35.1 32.3 29.6 27.0 24.8 22.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 12 15 17 18 16 16 15 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 32 35 28 24 16 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED