* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL152012 10/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 39 39 39 36 33 32 32 31 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 39 39 39 39 36 33 32 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 41 40 38 35 35 34 34 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 21 26 23 16 15 14 21 29 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 9 12 15 9 4 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 294 305 321 308 289 273 276 253 232 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.4 25.3 24.1 23.5 23.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 135 134 130 119 109 100 96 93 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 127 127 121 108 98 89 85 82 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 10 9 9 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 56 57 52 44 41 37 33 32 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 13 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -34 -24 16 25 16 7 -30 -26 2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 47 48 66 66 42 6 5 7 17 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 19 36 63 82 10 0 -13 -2 -20 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2148 2294 2302 2148 2003 1791 1648 1535 1472 1433 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.9 22.8 23.9 24.9 26.8 28.8 30.8 32.8 34.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.4 40.4 39.3 37.8 36.3 33.8 31.5 29.3 27.5 25.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 17 16 14 14 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 26 26 25 6 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 784 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152012 OSCAR 10/04/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED