* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL152012 10/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 43 43 43 40 35 34 32 29 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 43 43 43 40 35 34 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 45 44 40 37 36 36 35 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 26 26 18 27 19 20 24 31 38 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 12 9 4 3 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 306 321 300 283 267 262 231 229 233 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 26.8 25.9 24.1 23.9 23.2 21.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 128 118 103 101 96 87 81 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 133 127 113 95 93 87 79 74 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 58 58 55 48 53 43 45 43 41 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -30 11 28 29 52 6 -10 -18 -10 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 56 68 63 69 63 28 20 18 28 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 41 74 101 88 43 19 7 -7 15 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2255 2279 2119 1899 1714 1488 1291 1078 717 411 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.7 23.0 24.2 26.0 27.7 30.7 33.4 36.3 38.9 41.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.7 39.1 37.5 35.1 32.7 28.8 24.9 21.0 17.5 13.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 24 28 25 22 21 20 19 19 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 30 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 836 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -10. -11. -13. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152012 OSCAR 10/05/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152012 OSCAR 10/05/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED