* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 49 52 49 42 35 29 23 18 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 49 52 49 42 35 29 23 18 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 46 47 45 42 39 35 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 7 8 11 10 18 17 15 20 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -2 0 1 3 0 0 1 3 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 275 142 158 188 176 203 191 202 241 239 243 238 250 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 143 137 134 132 130 130 128 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 57 56 54 50 50 45 48 45 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 6 -3 -3 -3 0 7 4 -2 -11 -12 -20 200 MB DIV 45 73 75 50 34 51 20 13 4 6 4 -14 -23 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 4 3 4 LAND (KM) 1401 1418 1430 1438 1449 1469 1452 1443 1467 1514 1562 1603 1637 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.7 120.2 120.7 121.2 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.9 123.4 124.0 124.5 125.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 20 18 14 10 7 4 5 8 12 16 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 14. 7. 0. -6. -12. -17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)