* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 59 62 63 61 53 45 37 30 24 19 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 59 62 63 61 53 45 37 30 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 61 64 63 59 55 50 44 39 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 11 12 10 12 15 16 18 20 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 0 3 0 3 2 3 6 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 88 175 212 215 202 212 183 237 255 257 252 255 247 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 144 141 137 133 131 130 131 131 131 132 133 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 57 55 54 52 49 47 46 45 41 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 10 9 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 1 -4 -6 -8 4 4 -1 -4 -2 -5 -5 200 MB DIV 69 88 60 38 45 37 38 10 -5 -1 1 -1 -9 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 4 2 1 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 LAND (KM) 1476 1484 1495 1488 1484 1474 1490 1521 1584 1648 1737 1811 1875 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.7 15.9 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.9 121.5 121.9 122.3 122.6 123.0 123.4 124.0 124.7 125.6 126.4 127.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 4 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 21 18 14 11 9 9 10 14 13 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 18. 16. 8. 0. -8. -15. -21. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)