* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 57 57 51 41 32 25 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 57 57 51 41 32 25 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 58 59 59 56 52 47 42 36 31 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 9 14 10 9 8 14 18 18 20 26 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 1 4 2 2 2 3 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 203 222 218 211 205 196 212 256 251 255 258 264 261 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 141 137 135 131 130 129 130 131 131 134 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 53 50 50 46 47 46 40 39 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 14 13 12 14 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 4 2 -4 -6 -1 3 8 8 1 -5 0 0 7 200 MB DIV 81 63 52 76 73 40 19 -8 0 -2 -26 -15 -8 700-850 TADV 3 3 5 2 3 6 7 7 2 5 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 1470 1470 1473 1462 1452 1428 1444 1498 1585 1663 1737 1841 1960 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.3 16.1 15.8 15.5 15.4 15.1 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.3 121.8 122.1 122.3 122.5 122.8 123.3 124.1 124.8 125.6 126.6 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 3 4 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 19 16 10 10 9 9 10 14 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 1. -9. -18. -25. -32. -39. -43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)