* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 50 49 44 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 50 49 44 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 50 49 47 43 39 34 29 25 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 12 10 7 14 18 12 16 21 24 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 1 3 1 7 6 1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 248 231 214 206 209 226 246 261 257 251 250 258 261 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 139 137 132 130 131 131 132 131 133 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 56 53 54 51 53 46 49 48 46 44 38 33 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 14 12 12 10 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -11 -10 -3 -3 0 6 7 -1 7 11 5 5 200 MB DIV 56 39 64 60 40 32 -7 14 0 -22 -29 -29 -9 700-850 TADV 5 5 3 2 2 6 5 4 3 1 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1467 1443 1421 1387 1354 1336 1366 1436 1521 1624 1723 1853 1973 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 16.6 16.3 15.9 15.6 15.6 15.3 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.1 121.3 121.3 121.3 121.6 122.1 122.7 123.4 124.4 125.6 126.9 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 2 2 4 4 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 21 18 16 13 12 10 9 10 16 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. -1. -6. -15. -22. -29. -36. -42. -47. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)