* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 50 50 45 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 50 50 45 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 47 45 40 35 30 26 21 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 12 10 17 20 21 26 28 30 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 0 4 0 1 4 3 0 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 238 212 212 206 208 235 252 250 252 246 251 248 252 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 135 132 128 126 126 126 126 127 129 132 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 51 48 43 44 45 39 40 35 32 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 12 10 8 6 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -6 -7 0 3 5 0 -2 -2 -11 -8 -9 200 MB DIV 28 57 77 48 40 23 -7 4 11 -17 -11 -13 -9 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 3 6 7 8 3 6 3 3 5 7 LAND (KM) 1378 1347 1316 1287 1259 1274 1307 1393 1504 1602 1692 1815 1974 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.2 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.4 17.1 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.1 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 120.9 121.0 121.1 121.1 121.6 122.1 122.9 123.9 124.9 125.9 127.3 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 16 14 13 14 16 13 9 26 29 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -5. -15. -25. -34. -41. -48. -54. -59. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)