* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 48 45 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 48 45 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 49 48 46 44 38 32 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 18 18 21 23 26 28 26 21 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 207 212 205 209 227 247 254 251 243 239 244 251 254 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 132 131 130 129 128 126 128 132 134 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 53 55 51 48 46 48 49 45 43 39 38 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 2 3 1 11 5 1 3 3 8 -3 -8 200 MB DIV 61 60 69 71 40 4 5 -9 -26 -24 -13 -15 -13 700-850 TADV 2 3 8 6 6 5 4 4 1 4 4 7 4 LAND (KM) 1309 1281 1252 1251 1251 1312 1383 1462 1543 1646 1778 1908 2008 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.1 15.4 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.9 120.9 120.8 121.0 121.1 121.8 122.5 123.3 124.2 125.1 126.1 127.3 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 14 15 15 12 7 3 4 9 6 9 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -13. -23. -34. -43. -50. -55. -59. -60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)