* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 33 30 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 18 19 17 17 19 23 23 25 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 -1 0 6 1 0 -1 -2 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 217 197 219 235 234 236 227 226 239 231 240 230 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 137 137 137 137 138 138 136 133 129 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 49 50 51 50 48 45 43 40 37 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 9 8 7 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 6 0 1 9 9 1 3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -14 200 MB DIV 64 74 53 16 -1 -4 -5 0 -12 0 -15 -11 -19 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 3 4 2 3 0 0 -1 -1 -3 5 LAND (KM) 1322 1326 1329 1348 1367 1451 1567 1676 1793 1890 1985 2030 2043 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.2 121.3 121.4 121.6 121.8 122.6 123.6 124.5 125.5 126.5 127.8 128.9 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 11 11 10 6 3 1 5 6 9 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -23. -33. -40. -45. -49. -52. -54. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)