* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 15 14 16 18 21 21 16 13 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 2 3 -1 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 SHEAR DIR 205 214 227 235 233 229 231 229 233 224 230 242 239 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 139 139 138 137 137 138 138 137 136 133 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 48 50 49 48 47 45 47 43 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 3 5 6 5 -7 0 -3 4 1 0 -3 200 MB DIV 59 56 21 1 -2 1 0 -1 0 -13 2 -5 -21 700-850 TADV 5 4 3 4 3 3 1 0 1 1 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1362 1377 1391 1433 1474 1590 1707 1833 1952 2067 2164 2221 2245 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.7 15.3 14.9 14.4 14.0 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.3 121.5 121.7 122.2 122.6 123.7 124.8 125.9 127.0 128.2 129.6 130.8 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 9 8 3 1 6 9 12 16 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -26. -35. -40. -41. -42. -45. -45. -43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)