* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP152012 10/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 23 21 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 15 14 14 14 10 11 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -5 -4 0 3 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 225 233 240 229 226 226 219 232 242 256 251 264 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 142 142 141 142 141 142 140 138 133 128 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 50 51 50 48 49 51 50 47 43 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 7 5 8 8 -2 -1 -3 3 5 17 5 N/A 200 MB DIV 43 19 5 8 4 -9 0 11 13 -11 3 -8 N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 4 3 2 2 0 1 1 4 5 2 N/A LAND (KM) 1441 1486 1531 1600 1668 1831 2003 2170 2307 2409 2430 2268 N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.4 13.7 13.1 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.4 14.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.1 122.5 123.2 123.8 125.2 126.8 128.4 130.2 131.8 132.9 134.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 11 11 13 15 18 17 17 17 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -22. -26. -27. -30. -33. -34. -31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152012 OLIVIA 10/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)