* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162012 10/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 40 43 44 42 39 38 36 38 37 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 40 43 44 42 39 38 32 30 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 37 37 37 36 35 31 29 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 23 27 24 29 34 37 35 29 29 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 3 6 6 3 -4 -4 -3 -6 -7 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 260 237 222 221 214 207 237 240 251 243 253 243 241 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 152 152 155 159 158 158 157 158 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 125 126 127 131 140 144 144 140 139 139 144 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 39 38 40 40 41 41 40 39 42 43 41 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 19 18 16 31 14 16 -3 6 22 15 18 200 MB DIV 30 42 43 33 9 25 -1 -31 -19 -39 -30 -25 -1 700-850 TADV 0 3 2 3 2 -7 -7 0 -7 -2 -4 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 586 591 595 603 610 624 508 322 168 59 -11 -4 63 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.6 24.6 23.5 22.8 22.6 22.2 21.6 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.6 72.6 72.6 72.5 72.0 72.4 74.0 76.2 77.9 79.1 79.4 79.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 0 0 1 1 3 7 10 10 7 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 35 35 35 39 57 63 91 104 60 136 140 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 0. -6. -12. -17. -20. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 12. 9. 8. 6. 8. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 SIXTEEN 10/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 SIXTEEN 10/11/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)