* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIXTEEN AL162012 10/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 44 45 44 39 35 33 31 31 29 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 44 45 44 39 35 33 31 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 40 41 41 39 35 33 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 24 27 25 23 37 39 49 33 37 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 5 2 -1 -5 -1 -4 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 219 223 220 210 227 247 256 269 257 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 155 155 155 153 152 151 150 145 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 131 131 130 130 129 129 128 127 122 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 41 38 38 36 35 33 36 37 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 21 15 15 19 22 -5 -29 -47 -74 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 38 28 7 -2 18 -7 -20 -31 -19 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 0 -1 -5 0 -4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 630 598 566 549 532 522 549 530 485 494 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.4 25.8 26.4 27.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.6 72.8 73.1 73.3 73.8 74.3 74.8 75.2 75.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 35 37 36 36 34 33 35 40 47 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -3. -11. -17. -22. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 4. 0. -2. -4. -4. -6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 SIXTEEN 10/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 SIXTEEN 10/11/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)