* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATTY AL162012 10/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 50 52 50 44 41 36 34 33 31 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 50 52 50 44 41 36 34 33 31 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 47 47 47 47 45 42 40 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 31 25 25 28 32 41 40 36 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 3 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 217 220 214 211 232 229 249 247 251 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 154 155 155 155 155 154 153 149 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 130 130 132 132 132 133 132 131 126 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 37 35 33 31 31 32 45 48 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 11 22 29 34 28 39 7 7 17 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 31 11 7 24 16 -36 -19 -47 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 639 602 566 529 493 449 442 448 425 376 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.9 25.3 26.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.5 72.8 73.0 73.3 73.5 74.1 74.7 75.4 75.9 76.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 32 34 37 42 50 55 56 53 63 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -13. -18. -23. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 10. 4. 1. -4. -6. -7. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162012 PATTY 10/12/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162012 PATTY 10/12/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)